Pierre Poilievre is upending B.C. politics without trying very hard

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On April 12 of last year, the BC Liberal Party officially changed its name to BC United.

It launched what may go down as one of the worst political rebranding exercises in Canadian history.

For those not acquainted with the political scene in British Columbia, the Liberals ruled the kingdom on the West Coast for nearly 17 years starting in 2001. For much of that time, it looked like they might govern forever, such was their grip on power. It helped that they were abetted by an official New Democratic Party opposition that often seemed better at infighting than making life miserable for the government.

Still, the Liberals always had an annoying problem: their name. In practical terms, the party was centre-right. Its policies needed to satiate both centrists – progressives who couldn’t quite accept the NDP – and conservatives, who didn’t truly have a credible party of their own for whom to vote in the province.

In fact, the two leaders who headed the Liberals during their 17-year reign – Gordon Campbell and Christy Clark – were really conservatives in disguise. It reflected the party’s never-ending concern that its right flank needed to be kept happy. It was the conservatives in their voting coalition they always feared losing most.

Liberal fortunes began to crumble in 2017, when the party was forced to accept defeat after the NDP and the Green Party agreed to a ruling partnership. The Liberals lost in a landslide three years later.

This renewed a debate within the party over its name. It was long felt it confused people because the party wasn’t a true “liberal” entity. It had no official relationship with the federal Liberals. A more amorphous, inclusive name might work better, the thinking went.

When Kevin Falcon took over the leadership in May, 2022, he made it a mission to make the name change happen. And he did. In April of last year, BC United was born.

And it’s pretty much been a disaster ever since.

When Mr. Falcon kicked John Rustad out of his caucus last year for questioning climate change, he could never have imagined the consequences. Mr. Rustad took over as leader of the moribund BC Conservative party, breathing new life into it – despite the fact few knew who he was, and most still don’t. It doesn’t matter, however, because most people know who Pierre Poilievre is – the Leader of the federal Conservative Party of Canada. And arguably the most popular politician in the country.

The BC Conservatives have benefited greatly from the name association with Mr. Poilievre’s party. Recent polls have suggested far more people in B.C. would vote for the provincial Conservatives than the more established BC United.

One poll in March showed the BC Conservatives within six points of the NDP. The Mainstreet Research poll showed 40-per-cent support for the NDP among decided voters compared with 34-per-cent for the Conservatives and 14-per-cent for BC United. The Greens received 10-per-cent support.

Meanwhile, a new Angus Reid poll showed just how much the BC Conservatives are benefiting from Mr. Poilievre’s popularity. It indicated 56 per cent of likely federal Conservative supporters also support the provincial BC Conservatives instead of BC United. This, despite the fact most people don’t know who John Rustad is and couldn’t pick him out of a police lineup of one.

And also despite the fact that BC United has a far higher profile in the legislature, with 26 sitting members compared with the BC Conservatives’ lowly two.

Pierre Poilievre is a thing. Barring some unforeseen disaster, he’ll be the next prime minister of Canada. He’s been able to feed off of an intense dislike for Justin Trudeau – particularly in the West – and others are now benefiting from that reality as well.

B.C. Premier David Eby, meantime, seems already gearing up for a fight with Mr. Rustad’s Conservative party more than Mr. Falcon’s BC United. He’s called the provincial Conservatives an “extremist party” that wants to bring U.S. Republican culture-war ideology to the province.

So where does that leave Mr. Falcon and his party?

In a horribly difficult spot.

There is no question the transition from BC Liberals to BC United was badly botched. The name change was made without the benefit of a well-financed marketing campaign that made people aware of what was going on and why. Some of that is happening now, but it’s getting lost in the storm of interest Mr. Poilievre has created around the Conservative brand.

British Columbians go to the polls in October. As with all elections, there is a lot riding on it, not the least of which is the future of Kevin Falcon and his old-new political party.