Want to provoke Vladimir Putin? Show weakness

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There are few U.S. politicians of the past several decades who possessed a better grasp of geopolitical realities than the late Republican senator John McCain.

In particular, Mr. McCain understood the mind of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In 2014, the former presidential candidate predicted the war unfolding in Ukraine today. After Mr. Putin invaded Crimea, Mr. McCain said that Russia’s ambitions would not stop there, especially given the timidness of the Western alliance.

“We did not send weapons to Ukraine when they were begging for them,” he said in an interview. “We wouldn’t even give them intelligence because we didn’t want to, quote, ‘provoke’ Vladimir Putin. But by showing weakness, we provoked Vladimir Putin.”

He continued: “A developing and democratic Ukraine is a threat to Putin’s power. He will try and claim more of Ukraine and the Baltics.”

Of course, he was dead right.

Now, two years into Mr. Putin’s war, we are reminded of Mr. McCain’s observations as the conflict teeters on the brink of change – and not in a good way. The Feb. 17 fall of Avdiivka has precipitated a slow but steady incursion of Russian troops westward – this, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his troops plead for more help from the West.

Amid these developments, Western leaders have begun to articulate their views on where things stand. And no one’s observations have caused a bigger stir than French President Emmanuel Macron’s. Last month, he urged Ukraine’s allies “not to be cowardly,” in supporting the country. He even said that the deployment of European troops to Ukraine should not be “ruled out.”

“Is this or is it not our war?” Mr. Macron said while standing beside President Petr Pavel during a visit to the Czech Republic. “Can we look away in the belief that we can let things run their course? I don’t believe so, and I called for a strategic surge and I fully stand behind that.”

For his part, Mr. Pavel said he was in favour of looking for new ways to help the war effort, “including continuing the discussion about a possible presence in Ukraine. Let’s not limit ourselves where we shouldn’t.”

Mr. Putin, predictably, did some sabre-rattling of his own in response. To no one’s surprise, he tossed out the most loaded word in his arsenal, stating in a national address last Thursday that Russia wouldn’t hesitate to use nuclear weapons if Western powers send soldiers within striking distance of his country.

“Everything that the West comes up with creates the real threat of a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons, and thus the destruction of civilization,” he said. A line befitting his usual script.

Thus, we find ourselves at a critical juncture in the war. Ukraine is begging for help. House Republicans in the U.S. are holding up US$60-billion in military aid at the urging of their party’s likely presidential candidate, Donald Trump, a noted admirer of Mr. Putin. Other Western allies have been slow to get much-needed tanks, artillery and other supplies into Ukraine to help replenish the country’s dwindling stockpiles. It feels like Mr. Putin can smell blood.

It’s odd that Mr. Macron would be the one to raise the spectre of putting Western troops on the ground in Ukraine. At the beginning of the conflict, it was hard to find a world leader with a weaker position on the war. He was the one saying it was important not to “humiliate” Mr. Putin because it might “provoke” him into becoming even more alone and dangerous.

Now he’s saying, rightly if not belatedly, that the West can’t be cowed by Mr. Putin’s threats as he attempts to put the once-grand Soviet Union back together.

Is Mr. Putin insane enough to blow up the world if the West does insert itself more fully into the war? If it puts boots on the ground? Possibly. No one knows for sure. But the alternative is to stand by and watch Mr. Putin abscond with an entire country, one that was just beginning to enjoy the fruits of its hard-fought-for freedoms. If he gets away with it, we’ll likely still be watching as he tries to expand his empire further while threatening to destroy the world if anyone tries to stop him.

With the possibility of another Trump presidency starting to crystallize, it’s never been more important to give Ukraine everything it needs to defeat Russia. The strategic licence the West has so far afforded Mr. Putin has come at a huge cost.

Only his defeat will give the world back some of the security and stability it desperately needs.